The Fiji First Party has been a dominant force in Fijian
politics since its inception under the leadership of Prime Minister Frank
Bainimarama. Across the three general elections of 2014, 2018, and 2022, the
party's performance reflected both the strengths of its leadership and the
evolving political landscape of Fiji. Central to Fiji First’s electoral
successes and eventual decline was the superstar appeal of Bainimarama, whose
influence over the party’s popularity was significant. Additionally, the
shifting iTaukei (indigenous Fijian) support base and declining voter turnout
played crucial roles in shaping election outcomes.
1.
Fiji First's Performance in the 2014
Election
In the 2014 general election, Fiji First secured a decisive
victory, winning 59.2% of the vote and capturing 32 out of 50 parliamentary
seats. This landslide win was largely attributed to Bainimarama’s strong
personal appeal. As the architect of Fiji’s post-coup government and the leader
who oversaw economic growth and infrastructural development, he positioned
himself as a modernizer committed to stability and progress. His image as a
strong leader, particularly in contrast to Fiji’s historically unstable
political environment, resonated with many voters.
A significant factor in the 2014 victory was Bainimarama’s
outreach to non-iTaukei communities, particularly Indo-Fijians, who had
historically felt marginalized. By advocating for a common national identity
and eliminating race-based electoral rolls, Fiji First garnered substantial
support from these groups. However, iTaukei support remained a concern, as many
indigenous Fijians remained skeptical of Bainimarama’s policies, particularly
his moves to diminish traditional chiefly authority.
2.
The 2018 Election: Retaining Power Amidst
Declining Support
The 2018 general election saw Fiji First’s vote share drop
to 50%, translating to 27 seats in Parliament—a decline from 2014 but still
enough to secure a second term. Bainimarama’s personal appeal remained strong,
and his ability to maintain control of the party’s narrative played a crucial
role in the outcome. However, opposition parties, particularly the Social
Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), gained ground, fueled by increasing
skepticism among iTaukei voters.
The erosion of iTaukei support in 2018 was influenced by
concerns over land rights, cultural preservation, and Bainimarama’s governance
style, which some saw as authoritarian. While urban and Indo-Fijian voters
largely remained loyal to Fiji First, rural iTaukei voters leaned towards
SODELPA, which positioned itself as the defender of indigenous interests. The
narrowing victory margin indicated that Fiji First’s electoral dominance was
waning, despite Bainimarama’s continued personal popularity.
3.
The 2022 Election: A Decline in
Popularity and the Loss of Power
By 2022, Fiji First’s vote share further declined to 42.5%,
securing only 26 seats—insufficient to form a government. This result marked a
significant shift in Fijian politics, as a coalition of opposition parties,
including the People's Alliance Party and the National Federation Party,
successfully ended Fiji First’s rule. Bainimarama’s once-unquestioned superstar
appeal was no longer enough to sustain electoral dominance, and key structural
factors contributed to the party’s loss.
One major factor was the continued erosion of iTaukei
support. The opposition effectively mobilized indigenous voters by capitalizing
on grievances over land policies, governance, and Bainimarama’s top-down
leadership approach. Additionally, economic challenges, including the impacts
of the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated public dissatisfaction.
4.
Declining Voter Turnout: Causes and
Implications
A crucial trend across all three elections was the decline
in voter turnout. In 2014, turnout was a robust 84.6%, but by 2018, it had
dropped to 72.5%, and in 2022, it declined further to 68.3%. Several factors
contributed to this downward trend:
- Voter
Apathy and Disillusionment – Over time, some voters became
disillusioned with Fiji First’s governance, particularly regarding its
handling of democratic freedoms and economic issues. However, they did not
necessarily see viable alternatives in opposition parties, leading to
political disengagement.
- Fear
and Intimidation – Opposition parties and civil society groups
reported concerns that some voters felt pressured or intimidated by the
government’s strong rhetoric and control over media and institutions,
discouraging voter participation.
- Migration
and Demographic Changes – A significant portion of Fiji’s population,
particularly younger and urban voters, either emigrated or became
disengaged from the political process, further reducing turnout.
5.
Predictions for the 2026 Election: The
Impact of Bainimarama’s Exit and Fiji First’s Deregistration
With Bainimarama no longer at the forefront and Fiji First’s
deregistration as a political party, the 2026 election is set to be a
transformative moment in Fijian politics. The absence of Fiji First leaves a
power vacuum that opposition parties will seek to fill. The key question is
whether the People’s Alliance Party (PAP), under Sitiveni Rabuka, can maintain
control of the government.
Rabuka’s leadership and popularity will be crucial in
determining PAP’s fortunes. His ability to unite iTaukei support and retain
Indo-Fijian backing will be a determining factor. While he enjoys a strong
personal appeal, his leadership will be tested by economic challenges,
governance issues, and potential opposition from new political forces emerging
in the wake of Fiji First’s collapse.
Without Bainimarama’s centralized leadership and Fiji
First’s political machinery, opposition parties such as the National Federation
Party (NFP) and new entrants could gain traction, potentially fragmenting the
political landscape. If Rabuka can consolidate his coalition’s position and
effectively address economic and social concerns, he may maintain power.
However, a divided opposition or an unexpected new political movement could
challenge his administration in 2026.
Fiji First’s trajectory from dominance in 2014 to defeat in
2022 highlights the role of strong leadership, shifting voter demographics, and
political opposition strategies. Bainimarama’s personal appeal was the linchpin
of the party’s success, but as economic and political challenges mounted, even
his charisma could not counteract growing dissatisfaction. The decline in
iTaukei support, coupled with decreased voter turnout, signaled a changing
political landscape, ultimately culminating in Fiji First’s loss of power.
Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of Bainimarama and the
deregistration of Fiji First create an unpredictable political environment.
While Rabuka’s People’s Alliance Party currently holds power, the next election
will test whether his leadership can sustain long-term political dominance or
if new forces will reshape Fiji’s political future.
6. The Superstar Model vs. the Partisan Model under the
D'Hondt System in Fijian Politics
Fiji uses the D'Hondt system, a proportional
representation method, for its parliamentary elections. This system tends to
favor larger political parties by distributing seats based on party vote share
rather than individual candidates. Within this framework, political parties in
Fiji often adopt different electoral strategies, notably the Superstar Model
and the Partisan Model.
- The Superstar
Model relies on a highly popular leader or candidate who attracts the
majority of votes for the party, effectively pulling other candidates into
parliament through seat allocation.
- The Partisan
Model focuses on building a strong, ideologically unified party where
votes are more evenly distributed among candidates rather than
concentrated on a single figure.
The Superstar Model in Fiji
The Superstar Model has been a dominant strategy in Fijian
politics, particularly evident in recent elections where powerful political
figures, such as Frank Bainimarama and Sitiveni Rabuka, have
played a central role in mobilizing voter support.
Advantages
- Vote
Accumulation: The D'Hondt system allows votes cast for a single
candidate to benefit others on the party list, making a superstar leader
an asset.
- Simplifies
Campaigning: The focus on one key figure reduces the need for
extensive individual candidate campaigns.
- Emotional
and Ethnic Appeal: In Fiji, politics is often shaped by ethnic and
personal loyalties, making a strong leader an effective rallying point.
Disadvantages
- Over-Reliance
on a Single Figure: If the superstar leader is removed (due to legal
issues, health, or loss of popularity), the party risks collapsing.
- Candidate
Quality Disparity: Less prominent candidates may enter parliament
without having earned significant personal voter support.
- Internal
Party Struggles: Other party members may feel sidelined, leading to
factionalism.
The Partisan Model in Fiji
The Partisan Model is centered on a strong party brand
rather than a single leader. Parties such as National Federation Party (NFP)
and SODELPA have attempted to adopt this approach, focusing on
collective leadership and grassroots support.
Advantages
- Stability
and Longevity: The party remains relevant beyond the tenure of a
single leader.
- Distributed
Campaigning: Candidates campaign independently, broadening voter
outreach.
- Reduced
Internal Conflict: Shared leadership can prevent the concentration of
power in one individual.
Disadvantages
- Less
Effective in Vote Maximization: In the D'Hondt system, a party lacking
a strong unifying figure may struggle to attract enough votes to compete
with superstar-led parties.
- Harder
to Mobilize Voters: Fijian politics often favors recognizable faces
over ideological commitments, making it harder for collective leadership
parties to compete.
- Challenges
in Messaging: A party with multiple voices may struggle with a
consistent and compelling message.
7. Which Model Works Better under the D'Hondt System?
The Superstar Model has been more effective in Fijian
politics due to the mechanics of the D'Hondt system. Since the system rewards
large vote accumulations within a party, a single charismatic leader can pull
in votes that translate into multiple seats. This was evident in FijiFirst’s
2014 and 2018 victories, where Bainimarama secured a significant personal vote
share, boosting lesser-known candidates into parliament.
However, the Partisan Model offers long-term
resilience. A party that builds a strong brand and a broad candidate base may
suffer in the short term but can ensure continuity beyond a single election
cycle.
Under the D'Hondt system in Fiji, the Superstar Model
has proven more effective in securing immediate electoral success by maximizing
vote accumulation. However, the Partisan Model offers greater long-term
stability, reducing dependence on a single leader. The most effective strategy
may be a hybrid approach—leveraging a popular leader while ensuring a strong
party foundation for sustainability.