The Superstar versus Partisan Model, Fiji First's Deregistration and the 2026 Scenario

The Fiji First Party has been a dominant force in Fijian politics since its inception under the leadership of Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama. Across the three general elections of 2014, 2018, and 2022, the party's performance reflected both the strengths of its leadership and the evolving political landscape of Fiji. Central to Fiji First’s electoral successes and eventual decline was the superstar appeal of Bainimarama, whose influence over the party’s popularity was significant. Additionally, the shifting iTaukei (indigenous Fijian) support base and declining voter turnout played crucial roles in shaping election outcomes.

1.     Fiji First's Performance in the 2014 Election

In the 2014 general election, Fiji First secured a decisive victory, winning 59.2% of the vote and capturing 32 out of 50 parliamentary seats. This landslide win was largely attributed to Bainimarama’s strong personal appeal. As the architect of Fiji’s post-coup government and the leader who oversaw economic growth and infrastructural development, he positioned himself as a modernizer committed to stability and progress. His image as a strong leader, particularly in contrast to Fiji’s historically unstable political environment, resonated with many voters.

A significant factor in the 2014 victory was Bainimarama’s outreach to non-iTaukei communities, particularly Indo-Fijians, who had historically felt marginalized. By advocating for a common national identity and eliminating race-based electoral rolls, Fiji First garnered substantial support from these groups. However, iTaukei support remained a concern, as many indigenous Fijians remained skeptical of Bainimarama’s policies, particularly his moves to diminish traditional chiefly authority.

2.     The 2018 Election: Retaining Power Amidst Declining Support

The 2018 general election saw Fiji First’s vote share drop to 50%, translating to 27 seats in Parliament—a decline from 2014 but still enough to secure a second term. Bainimarama’s personal appeal remained strong, and his ability to maintain control of the party’s narrative played a crucial role in the outcome. However, opposition parties, particularly the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA), gained ground, fueled by increasing skepticism among iTaukei voters.

The erosion of iTaukei support in 2018 was influenced by concerns over land rights, cultural preservation, and Bainimarama’s governance style, which some saw as authoritarian. While urban and Indo-Fijian voters largely remained loyal to Fiji First, rural iTaukei voters leaned towards SODELPA, which positioned itself as the defender of indigenous interests. The narrowing victory margin indicated that Fiji First’s electoral dominance was waning, despite Bainimarama’s continued personal popularity.

3.     The 2022 Election: A Decline in Popularity and the Loss of Power

By 2022, Fiji First’s vote share further declined to 42.5%, securing only 26 seats—insufficient to form a government. This result marked a significant shift in Fijian politics, as a coalition of opposition parties, including the People's Alliance Party and the National Federation Party, successfully ended Fiji First’s rule. Bainimarama’s once-unquestioned superstar appeal was no longer enough to sustain electoral dominance, and key structural factors contributed to the party’s loss.

One major factor was the continued erosion of iTaukei support. The opposition effectively mobilized indigenous voters by capitalizing on grievances over land policies, governance, and Bainimarama’s top-down leadership approach. Additionally, economic challenges, including the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated public dissatisfaction.

4.     Declining Voter Turnout: Causes and Implications

A crucial trend across all three elections was the decline in voter turnout. In 2014, turnout was a robust 84.6%, but by 2018, it had dropped to 72.5%, and in 2022, it declined further to 68.3%. Several factors contributed to this downward trend:

1. Voter Apathy and Disillusionment – Over time, some voters became disillusioned with Fiji First’s governance, particularly regarding its handling of democratic freedoms and economic issues. However, they did not necessarily see viable alternatives in opposition parties, leading to political disengagement.
2. Fear and Intimidation – Opposition parties and civil society groups reported concerns that some voters felt pressured or intimidated by the government’s strong rhetoric and control over media and institutions, discouraging voter participation.
3. Migration and Demographic Changes – A significant portion of Fiji’s population, particularly younger and urban voters, either emigrated or became disengaged from the political process, further reducing turnout.

5.     Predictions for the 2026 Election: The Impact of Bainimarama’s Exit and Fiji First’s Deregistration

With Bainimarama no longer at the forefront and Fiji First’s deregistration as a political party, the 2026 election is set to be a transformative moment in Fijian politics. The absence of Fiji First leaves a power vacuum that opposition parties will seek to fill. The key question is whether the People’s Alliance Party (PAP), under Sitiveni Rabuka, can maintain control of the government.

Rabuka’s leadership and popularity will be crucial in determining PAP’s fortunes. His ability to unite iTaukei support and retain Indo-Fijian backing will be a determining factor. While he enjoys a strong personal appeal, his leadership will be tested by economic challenges, governance issues, and potential opposition from new political forces emerging in the wake of Fiji First’s collapse.

Without Bainimarama’s centralized leadership and Fiji First’s political machinery, opposition parties such as the National Federation Party (NFP) and new entrants could gain traction, potentially fragmenting the political landscape. If Rabuka can consolidate his coalition’s position and effectively address economic and social concerns, he may maintain power. However, a divided opposition or an unexpected new political movement could challenge his administration in 2026.

Fiji First’s trajectory from dominance in 2014 to defeat in 2022 highlights the role of strong leadership, shifting voter demographics, and political opposition strategies. Bainimarama’s personal appeal was the linchpin of the party’s success, but as economic and political challenges mounted, even his charisma could not counteract growing dissatisfaction. The decline in iTaukei support, coupled with decreased voter turnout, signaled a changing political landscape, ultimately culminating in Fiji First’s loss of power.

Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of Bainimarama and the deregistration of Fiji First create an unpredictable political environment. While Rabuka’s People’s Alliance Party currently holds power, the next election will test whether his leadership can sustain long-term political dominance or if new forces will reshape Fiji’s political future.

6. The Superstar Model vs. the Partisan Model under the D'Hondt System in Fijian Politics

Fiji uses the D'Hondt system, a proportional representation method, for its parliamentary elections. This system tends to favor larger political parties by distributing seats based on party vote share rather than individual candidates. Within this framework, political parties in Fiji often adopt different electoral strategies, notably the Superstar Model and the Partisan Model.

• The Superstar Model relies on a highly popular leader or candidate who attracts the majority of votes for the party, effectively pulling other candidates into parliament through seat allocation.
• The Partisan Model focuses on building a strong, ideologically unified party where votes are more evenly distributed among candidates rather than concentrated on a single figure.

The Superstar Model in Fiji

The Superstar Model has been a dominant strategy in Fijian politics, particularly evident in recent elections where powerful political figures, such as Frank Bainimarama and Sitiveni Rabuka, have played a central role in mobilizing voter support.

Advantages

1. Vote Accumulation: The D'Hondt system allows votes cast for a single candidate to benefit others on the party list, making a superstar leader an asset.
2. Simplifies Campaigning: The focus on one key figure reduces the need for extensive individual candidate campaigns.
3. Emotional and Ethnic Appeal: In Fiji, politics is often shaped by ethnic and personal loyalties, making a strong leader an effective rallying point.

Disadvantages

1. Over-Reliance on a Single Figure: If the superstar leader is removed (due to legal issues, health, or loss of popularity), the party risks collapsing.
2. Candidate Quality Disparity: Less prominent candidates may enter parliament without having earned significant personal voter support.
3. Internal Party Struggles: Other party members may feel sidelined, leading to factionalism.

The Partisan Model in Fiji

The Partisan Model is centered on a strong party brand rather than a single leader. Parties such as National Federation Party (NFP) and SODELPA have attempted to adopt this approach, focusing on collective leadership and grassroots support.

Advantages

1. Stability and Longevity: The party remains relevant beyond the tenure of a single leader.
2. Distributed Campaigning: Candidates campaign independently, broadening voter outreach.
3. Reduced Internal Conflict: Shared leadership can prevent the concentration of power in one individual.

Disadvantages

1. Less Effective in Vote Maximization: In the D'Hondt system, a party lacking a strong unifying figure may struggle to attract enough votes to compete with superstar-led parties.
2. Harder to Mobilize Voters: Fijian politics often favors recognizable faces over ideological commitments, making it harder for collective leadership parties to compete.
3. Challenges in Messaging: A party with multiple voices may struggle with a consistent and compelling message.

7. Which Model Works Better under the D'Hondt System?

The Superstar Model has been more effective in Fijian politics due to the mechanics of the D'Hondt system. Since the system rewards large vote accumulations within a party, a single charismatic leader can pull in votes that translate into multiple seats. This was evident in FijiFirst’s 2014 and 2018 victories, where Bainimarama secured a significant personal vote share, boosting lesser-known candidates into parliament.

However, the Partisan Model offers long-term resilience. A party that builds a strong brand and a broad candidate base may suffer in the short term but can ensure continuity beyond a single election cycle.

Under the D'Hondt system in Fiji, the Superstar Model has proven more effective in securing immediate electoral success by maximizing vote accumulation. However, the Partisan Model offers greater long-term stability, reducing dependence on a single leader. The most effective strategy may be a hybrid approach—leveraging a popular leader while ensuring a strong party foundation for sustainability.